Given enough time, one thing might evolve into another. The chances of a mutation occuring are quite low, one in a billion for a successful, single-CATG-pair mutation, let's say (it's in the millions or billions, I just can't remember). Now, that's when a cell duplicates, so it'd probably happen a few times in your life. But the information in your DNA is so complex that it'd take a LOT of time for one thing to properly mutate into another.
OK, I know that each of us have 23 chromosome pairs, making 46 in total.
Let's assume that 1% of the DNA is uncommon between partners, that we have one trillion CATG pairs per chromosome, and that all chromosomes are of equal length. (They're not. This just simplifies the argument.) Let's also say that the 1% of common DNA is evenly distributed between partners.
I would probably use a Poisson distribution assuming I could be bothered. The thing is, I can't, so I'm going to take a wild guess. Assume that 5 CATG pairs mutate. That's 5 out of 46,000,000,000,000. Let's take the 1%, and assume that 1% of it changes, leaving us with 4,600,000,005 out of 46,00O,000,000,000. Not much difference there, right? (The O marks where the 4,600,000,005 starts.)
46,000,000,000,000 / 4,600,000,005 = 9999.9999891304342 (or 10,000 up to 4dp). Assuming a linear approach, and that all humans have a baby on their 19th birthday and have sex with people exactly their age, it would take a minimum of 190,000 years (up from 3dp) for the DNA to change into another specimen, assuming that all DNA combinations work. However, that's assuming that the set of common DNA changes every time. It doesn't. We have to work on that 5 out of 46 trillion.
46,000,000,000,000 / 5 = 9,200,000,000,000. That's how many pairs of people it would take (total people = 18,400,000,000,000), assuming no uncommon DNA this time, to have any chance of raising the uncommon DNA up to that level.
How do we reach that number? Let's start with one pair of people. Let's assume that everyone gives birth to quadruplets, or two pairs, and that they only have intercourse once in their life. It would take 43.06521 iterations (round it up to 44 as they're iterations) to end up with that many partners. Now, 44*19 = 836 years to reach that population. Then we'd need another 836 years to come up with something completely different.
Assuming the odds of giving birth to quadruplets is 1 in 200,000. We have this occuring about 2^43 times. The odds of this happening every time is 200,000^(2^43) which equals (I am using GNU bc here.):
Runtime error (func=(main), adr=17): exponent too large in raise
Ouch. Try 10 iterations.
200000^(2^10)5429 digits. That is painful. And it's only 10 iterations. As you can see, my theory just isn't going to work in that short timeframe of 836*2 = 1672 years.
17976931348623159077293051907890247336179769789423065727343008115773\
26758055009631327084773224075360211201138798713933576587897688144166\
22492847430639474124377767893424865485276302219601246094119453082952\
08500576883815068234246288147391311054082723716335051068458629823994\
72459384797163048353563296242241372160000000000000000000000000000000\
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Now, I can't be bothered raising the odds to 50% to come up with something half-plausible, but as you can probably see, I would need to supply a lot of time. I am aware that this doesn't cover everything, but here's a best-case scenario, with a very strong lower limit, and very strict conditions. Of course, as you should know, DNA gives instructions on how to reproduce properly, and if these are tampered with, then they shouldn't be able to reproduce.
However, there is the point that we apparently share 98.5% of our DNA with a particular ape, the closest match found. Apparently we also share 40% of our DNA with lettuce and 60% of our DNA with bananas, and that a grape has more chromosomes than a human being. But given two truly random streams of DNA (which aren't going to reproduce unless you want to apply some pathetically unlikely odds), odds are they'll have a 25% similarity. But how does this scale work exactly, and are they using the same scale? Of course there'll be a close similarity, otherwise at least one won't reproduce.
From what I can establish, there is no one-to-one way of comparing DNA from two separate species, due to the differences in chromosome lengths and counts. Comparisons between human DNA and ape DNA range from 80% to 99% depending entirely on the scale used.
Quote (source):
Time didn't make me able to look someone in the eye. My father has tried that many times. For nearly 18 years I couldn't do it, at least not very well.Nobel prize–winning scientist George Wald once wrote,
However improbable we regard this event [evolution], or any of the steps it involves, given enough time, it will almost certainly happen at least once [...] . Time is the hero of the plot [...] . Given so much time, the impossible becomes possible, the possible becomes probable, the probable becomes virtually certain. One only has to wait; time itself performs miracles.
Here's something else in that article:
Atheists, when encountered with the problem of evolution being highly unlikely, decide to twist the odds in their favour. How do they do this? Simple. They add lots of time to the equation, and all of a sudden their odds look almost ever-so-slightly considerable. (Also, they add lots of space to the equation, too.) I've heard the term "time worship" before, and this is precisely what it is: adding time.What have scientists calculated the probability to be of an average- size protein occurring naturally? Walter Bradley, Ph.D. materials science, and Charles Thaxton, Ph.D. chemistry, calculated that the probability of amino acids forming into a protein is
4.9 x 10-191.
This is well beyond the laws of probability (1x10-50), and a protein is not even close to becoming a complete living cell. Sir Fred Hoyle, Ph.D. astronomy, and Chandra Wickramasinghe, Professor of Applied Math and Astronomy, calculated that the probability of getting a cell by naturalistic processes is
1 x 10-40,000.
No matter how large the environment one considers, life cannot have had a random beginning [...] . There are about two thousand enzymes, and the chance of obtaining them all in a random trial is only one part in (1020)2000 = 1040,000, an outrageously small probability that could not be faced even if the whole universe consisted of organic soup.
Unfortunately for these atheists, there's evidence to suggest that we have only been here about 6,000 years, and the evidence pretty much rules out the possibility of there being a billion years. E.g. the age of the sun. In 1976, a group of Russian astronomers found out that the sun isn't a middle-aged star, but a very, very young one, no older than 7,500 years.
So where do you find the time? Well, it might explain it in another solar system, but not here. Either leave it as speculation for somewhere else, or find a better theory (and by better I don't mean "anything which doesn't involve a creator", and neither should you).
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